Say hello to the sequel season.
This might even be the nickname for this summer's list of potential blockbusters. Over the next four months, Hollywood will roll out what it hopes will be a winning mix of sequels, reboots and spinoffs from tried and tested franchises like Despicable Me and the Marvel Cinematic Universe as it looks to revitalize the faltering cinema business.
Last summer changed the script: New properties, such as “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” decided, while entries in older series like “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” and “Mission Impossible 7” missed the mark. This time, the truth may still prevail. Original offerings like Ryan Gosling's action comedy and Emily Blunt's “The Fall Guy” and Western Costner's “Horizon: An American Saga” will try to lure audiences, but analysts predict that the more popular brands – “Despicable Me 4”, Marvel's “Deadpool & Wolverine” and “Inside Out 2 ” of Pixar among them — will heat up ticket sales again.
“There is no 'Barbenheimer' on the schedule,” says Jeff Bock, an analyst with Exhibitor Relations. “It's going to be more important for sequels to succeed, whereas last summer we saw sequels fail.”
The summer movie season unofficially kicks off on May 3 with Universal's The Fall Guy. David Leitch's film is based on the 1980s TV series about stunt performers, but it might as well be something entirely new because, let's be honest, who remembers that show? Notably, this will be the first time since 2016 that Disney and Marvel aren't kicking things off. “The Fall Guy” has received strong reviews and could very well reignite its franchise. Still, box office comparisons to the same weekend in 2023 will be tough given that “Guardians of the Galaxy” kicked off that holiday with $118 million. So industry experts wouldn't be surprised if summer gets off to a slow start.
“We saw an opportunity in May and were happy to take advantage of it,” says Jim Orr, Universal's president of domestic distribution. “We think 'The Fall Guy' will not only open well, but will captivate audiences all summer long.”
The Gosling and Blunt starrer will arrive at a troubling time for the movie business. Although the strikes are long over, the aftershocks still reverberate. Domestic revenue is a stubborn 20% behind that of 2023 as studios and exhibitors face a lighter release calendar due to last year's work stoppage. March's “Dune: Part Two” and “Kung Fu Panda 4” are the only reasons the year-over-year deficit isn't worsebut Hollywood is devoting itself to popcorn season to save revenue.
“Summer is important to restore momentum. We had some in March, but we lost it,” says Orr. “I'm very optimistic about May and beyond.”
Last year's summer stretch was stronger than expected thanks to “Barbenheimer,” which boosted the season's box office to $4 billion for the first time in the post-pandemic era. It also proved that a plethora of new films can co-exist and even thrive off each other. That's good news considering there's a week until fall without at least one major release.
“That's how it used to be in the summer — new movies every week,” says exhibitor Chris Randleman of Texas-based Flix Brewhouse. “We're trying to recreate moviegoing habits.”
“Deadpool & Wolverine” is a title that could help determine the summer's financial fate. It's set to become one of the biggest movies of the year, but first it'll have to overcome the existential threat of superhero fatigue. Recent blockbusters like The Marvels and every entry in 2023 DC Comics proved that ticket buyers won't be seeing any old comic book characters on the big screen. Audiences want them to be watchable too. (Go figure!) The highly R-rated “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which teams Reynolds with Hugh Jackman, could flip the bird for naysayers.
Superheroes must have a help to save the ark. Theater owners have stated that since COVID-19, family films have been in short supply. It should ease their worries to know that the studios are offering plenty of kid-friendly adventures, including Paramount and director John Krasinski's fantasy comedy IF (May 17), Sony's The Garfield Movie (May 24), Inside Out 2” (June 14) and Universal’s “Despicable Me 4” (July 3). Pixar releases have struggled ever since pandemic, but exhibitors believe the sequel to 2015's “Inside Out” (which grossed $858 million worldwide) will recapture the glory of the animation empire.
While many of those titles are based on beloved IP, Paramount distribution chief Chris Aronson says, “Hopefully 'IF' will be one of those big bold original bets that pays off.”
Other epic swings at new ideas include Costner's “Horizon: An American Saga,” with “Chapter 1” landing on June 28 and “Chapter 2” arriving on August 16. And it's Fly Me to the Moon, a space in the center. romantic comedy starring Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum out July 12. Apple spent more than $100 million on the film (Sony is distributing), which will require stellar performances to fill theaters and justify its massive price tag.
As always, the studios are proving that what's old is new again. Disney is set to revive two 20th-century franchises, with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes on May 10 and sci-fi thriller Alien: Romulus on Aug. 16. Warner Bros. will return to The Wasteland for director George Miller's film. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” a prequel that promises the kind of glorious action that begs to be seen in Imax.
Meanwhile, Universal is reshooting the 1996 cyclone epic “Twister” with a new set of storm chasers in “Twisters.” It opens on July 19, and analysts believe it has the potential to be a sleeper hit thanks to the combination of nostalgia and new star Glen Powell. Paramount's almost silent “A Quiet Place: Day One” on June 28 reboots the post-apocalyptic world with Lupita Nyong'o and Joseph Quinn. And Sony has “Bad Boys: Ride or Die,” the fourth installment in the nearly 30-year-old series, on June 7. But will audiences come back for another Will Smith-Martin Lawrence reunion after watching Smith attack Chris Rock on stage at the 2022 Oscars?
“'Bad Boys 4' has everything going for it, so if it doesn't open much, we know why,” says Bock.
August can be hit or miss at the box office, but there's certainly plenty on the calendar. Blake Lively's literary adaptation “It Ends With Us” could score for Sony, while Lionsgate's “Borderlands” will either continue the hot streak of “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Uncharted.” OR prove that it's still challenging to make a good movie out of a hugely popular video game.
“There's a lot of traffic in late summer,” says Aronson, “but the volume can make up for it.”
